Counter-season table grape

  • Published on 30/01/2014 - Published by BENOIT-CELEYRETTE Cécilia
  • FruiTrop n°218 , Page From 71 to 75
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Balance yet to be found

The last few counter-season grape seasons seem to confirm the difficulty in matching supply and demand on the European market. The economic crisis actually boosted competition at the beginning of the season (October to December), in spite of a diversified range (seedless), which stands out from local produce. Conversely, the supply then became fairly fluctuating, or at times strained in mid-season, depending on the evolution of production and world demand.

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Summary

A 2012-13 season of great contrasts in Europe

The 2012-13 season is a fairly good illustration of the fluctuations of recent seasons, especially since it was marked by weather and economic conditions which both put back the harvest and reduced the exportable potential of several countries. However the production potential started off at a good level for the main Southern Hemisphere countries, reaching a total of 2.56 million tonnes, i.e. + 3 % from the previous season. Yet the season was late. In South Africa, the first volumes from the Transvaal and then Namibia were shipped from weeks 44 and 45, though the season only really started in week 50 with the very first shipments from Orange River. Similarly, the season began late in Chile. The first containers were sent to the United States and Asia only in week 50. The European market was sluggish, though with some good volumes in Italy and Spain.

So the season kicked off under unfavourable conditions, after the end-of-year holidays, and proved highly chaotic in many Southern Hemisphere countries at the beginning of the year. Indeed, heavy rains struck South Africa, causing the loss of at least 5 million boxes, especially in Orange River, and the earthquake at Copiapo in Chile stopped production in many stations in this zone. Yet activity was also greatly disrupted by strikes both in Argentina, where they have been recurrent in recent years, and in South Africa, and were settled by wage increases of 25 % and 10 % respectively. 

So rates remained very strong on the export markets, including Europe, enabling Peru to end its season in very good shape. February and then March were relatively light, especially in Europe, with the first batches from Chile not appearing until week 9. So the rates reached high levels (2.00 euros/kg, import stage), which held up until week 14, especially as the Chilean exporters also had to face the dockers’ strike at the port of San Antonio. The Thompson Seedless rates even reached 2.60 euros/kg at the import stage in week 13, with growth of shipments from India, rates of which always also achieved  records (2.20 euros/kg, import stage), not compensating for the shortage of Chilean grapes and the end of the South African season. 

Table Grape p72
Table Grape p72

Results varying between sources at the beginning of the season

Although, as is confirmed every year, European market penetration is difficult in October, the early-season sources were nonetheless able to maintain their market shares in 2012-13 due to the delay from other Southern Hemisphere countries (South Africa and Chile). Hence European imports from Brazil held up at around 37 000 t, in spite of a very slow beginning to the season, while shipments from Peru rose again by 5 % (40 000 t).

Argentina suffered another downturn (just 11 700 t, i.e. - 14 % on 2011-12) due to recurrent internal difficulties (strikes). This source is losing its footing every year on the international market, although surface areas are stable, or even slightly on the rise in certain zones such as Mendoza (8 500 ha). However, producers have invested in recent years in modern varieties such as Flame Seedless (3 000 ha). Yet the increase in production costs (labour, packaging, transport, etc.) and the export difficulties, whether to Europe or Brazil, which normally absorbs 30 % of quantities, have led to volumes earmarked for export being transferred to industry.

Similarly, production is struggling to hold up in Brazil (625 000 t in 2012-13, as opposed to 761 000 t in 2008-09), with exports highly dependent on the European market (38 000 t out of the total 52 000 t exported). Increasing volumes are therefore transferred year on year onto the internal market, where demand is regularly expanding.

Only Peru, whose customer portfolio is increasingly diversified, is really holding its own, with indeed a record export level for last season (153 900 t, + 16 % on 2011-12). It should further consolidate itself in the coming years, whereas it was exporting no more than 11 000 t in 2002-03. Indeed surface areas are continuing to grow at a tempo of 5 to 10 % per year (reconversion of asparagus plantations), already reaching 16 500 ha in 2011 for a long-term potential of at least 20 000 ha. Production is now in excess of 300 000 t, i.e. approximately twice as much as ten years ago! 

Table grape p 74
Table grape p 74

A favourable trade-off  for emerging countries during the season

Tensions are increasingly high in mid-season given international demand and the uncertainties at the production stage, which have frozen planting in recent years. Hence for several years now, growth of surface areas has halted in Chile, and while the Thompson Seedless variety still represents most of the volumes along with Flame Seedless, the supply has expanded more significantly in Sugraone, Crimson Seedless and Red Globe for the Asian markets. Hence shipments from Chile to Europe fell last year (138 000 t, ‑ 14 % on 2011-12), whereas its overall exports held up at around 850 000 t.

South African exports to the European market maintained the same level at around 168 000 t (  1 %), whereas export volumes fell overall (235 000 t, - 5 %), though we should be aware that the export level registered in the previous season had been particularly high. However, production growth also slowed down in this country in the face of the uncertainties (strikes, currency parity). Hence in spite of the government policy of Black Economic Empowerment to stimulate production by black farmers, their number fell by 5 %, and there were no more than 361 in 2012. However, surface areas are stable, even expanding further in 2012-13 (16 000 ha), and production should hold up and maybe increase in the coming years, especially since most of the vines (60 %) are between 4 and 15 years old. Indeed, the stock has been transformed in recent years, with a considerable fall in seeded varieties in favour of seedless, which now represent more than 70 % of planted area. Hence, Crimson Seedless (13 %), Thompson (11 %) and Prime Seedless (11 %), but also Sugraone (10 %) and Flame Seedless (9 %), dominate the supply. Certain seeded varieties such as Red Globe are also being planted (10 %) to satisfy Asian demand.

Another strained season in 2013-14? 

The 2013-14 season could be fairly comparable to the previous one, with already a difficult beginning to the season, but a market which is set to somewhat ease thereafter. Indeed it has begun under fairly similar conditions: a European market light in seedless varieties and an early end to the season in Turkey and Greece. Yet demand has switched toward counter-season sources fairly slowly, given the still substantial supply of seeded grapes from Italy and Spain at distinctly more attractive price levels (0.80-1.50 euro/kg, shipment stage) and much slower demand in the context of economic stagnation. 

So Brazil has really struggled to penetrate the market, and its exports could end up declining again, although the delay or shortfall from other Southern Hemisphere sources has helped clear the stocks built up at the beginning of the season. Argentinean production has been very discreet at the beginning of this season, especially since September’s heavy frosts considerably reduced the production potential (75 000 t, - 47 % on 2012-13), and the latest wage negotiations at the end of 2013 ended in another rise in the cost of labour, of around 25 %. Hence the maximum export potential was estimated at 20 000 t, i.e. another fall of at least 13 %. However, Peru should see its exports rise further, with an estimated production potential of at least 305 000 t (+ 2 %) for an export potential of 170 000 to 180 000 t, given the expansion of this source to numerous destinations.

The market was still sluggish at the beginning of the year due to the persistence of the European sources, but could subsequently right itself because of a slightly lighter supply. Indeed the volumes from South Africa were still limited at the beginning of the year, because of the delays in particular in Orange River, where the weather conditions affected the first harvests. So production could fall by approximately 3 % from 2012-13, and the export potential go down by approximately 5 %. Similarly, Chilean production this year could be further reduced due to the cold spell in September, when temperatures fell in places to - 4 to - 5°C, the coldest period since 1929. At the end of 2013, forecasts were counting on a reduction of 12 % (1.09 million tonnes). The association ASOEX announced a fall of 13 to 16 % in exports, i.e. a potential of approximately 730 000 t. Furthermore, the season is a bit late. The very first volumes were shipped to the United States in week 50.

Photo p74
Photo p74

    

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photo p75

  • Table Grape p72

    Table Grape p72
    Table Grape p72

  • Table grape p 74

    Table grape p 74
    Table grape p 74

  • Photo p74

    Photo p74
    Photo p74

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    photo p75
    photo p75

  • Raisin de table-Hémisphère Sud

    Raisin de table-Hémisphère Sud
    Raisin de table-Hémisphère Sud

  • Raisin de table-Hémisphère Sud-Exportations

    Raisin de table-Hémisphère Sud-Exportations
    Raisin de table-Hémisphère Sud-Exportations

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