European mango market Review of 2013 by week

  • Published on 31/03/2014 - Published by GERBAUD Pierre
  • FruiTrop n°220 , Page From 50 to 52
  • Free

Supply in chaos

The end-of-year intersection of the Brazilian and Peruvian seasons, with its accompanying fall in rates, seems to be turning back the clock a few years for the European mango supply profile. Conversely, the quantitative shortfalls in spring and autumn have widened. All these interference factors are disrupting sales of this produce.

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Weeks 1 to 6 : The usual post-holiday depression  

The first week of 2013 carried on in the same vein as the previous year, with much more marked deterioration of the market conditions. The dip in demand after the end-of-year holidays came at a time of high supply, precipitating the fall in rates. In addition, small sizes dominated the incoming shipments, though demand was more focused on the medium to large sizes. Most of the operators opted for the Peruvian source, to the detriment of Brazilian produce. The post-holiday depression seemed to be especially deep since prices had previously held up, more or less artificially, at particularly high levels. The cold spell and snowfall which hit Northern Europe in January did not help the market fluidity or consumption of tropical fruits.

Weeks 7 to 10 :Mango not the Queen of the Carnival  

In mid-February, the improvement was much more significant. Better demand and a more balanced supply in terms of size range helped this positive development. Yet demand quickly shrank, leading to a short-term stagnation. The start of the winter holidays and Carnival period in several European countries intensified this trend. Furthermore, shipments from Peru primarily comprised large-sized fruits, leading to a change in price-setting policy: the rate for small sizes, now scarcer, tended to strengthen, while the rate for larger sizes took a downturn.

The air-freight mango market, with a supply shortage because of the change of harvest zone, strengthened considerably. 

Weeks 11 to 15 : A stabilising market

In early March, the supply was still fairly stable, with 180 to 200 containers per week, helping restore relative balance to the sale prices. The reduction of volumes shipped from Peru even slightly revitalised rates. Hence this slight decrease in the supply, at a time when demand was picking up in the run-up to the Easter holidays, caused an under-supply, enabling rates to remain high and strong, and even some temporary increases and speculations. 

Weeks 16 to 22 : Unprecedented under-supply 

In mid-April, incoming shipments fell below 100 containers per week (not to mention shipments from Costa Rica and Puerto Rico), marking a phase of under-supply to the European market, in a context of stable demand. End-of-season Peruvian shipments decreased gradually, and were partially compensated for by Brazilian, Costa Rican and Puerto Rican shipments. The delay to the West African season, above all in Côte d'Ivoire, created a period of shortfall, helping maintain the sea-freight mango rate at a high stable level. This situation, which had not been observed for several seasons, led to a general increase in rates and to speculation effects pushing certain prices to exceptional levels. In early May, the switch from the Peruvian season to the West African season was going slowly, causing a big dip in volumes. This under-supply trend was mainly due to the scarcity of West African shipments, as well as the shortfall from Brazil (- 30 to - 50 % from the same period of 2012). 

Weeks 23 to 34 :Traditional transition period 

In late May, the momentum of the European mango market was running out of steam. The quantities available remained limited, but demand, particularly from the supermarket sector, dipped significantly due to the persistent high prices, unfavourable weather conditions and the larger-scale arrival of seasonal fruits. On top of this there was the more haphazard quality of Ivorian fruits - the dominant market source at the time. In June, interest in the mango fell in proportion to the rush for the long-awaited European-produced fruits. In addition, the mangoes available were of less reliable quality, with their development often proving dissatisfactory (fungal attacks, withering).

The European market then entered a transition phase with the end of incoming shipments from Côte d'Ivoire, though Mali and Burkina Faso kept up limited volumes. Senegal and Mexico then started their export season to a market in a downward phase.     

From mid-July, faced with declining demand, the supply started to diverge in terms of source, varieties and quality. Produce was imported from Brazil (Tommy Atkins, Keitt and Palmer), Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic (Keitt), Senegal and Mexico (Kent), as well as the final batches from Mali (Kent and Keitt). The incoming shipments remained restrained and covered requirements, particularly those of the supermarket sector.

Weeks 35 to 43 :Back to under-supply 

Late August marked a turning point in the market development. The combination of demand picking up and a distinct under-supply roused the market from the relatively flat period in which it had been stagnating for several weeks. The price of mangoes, without distinction between sources, saw an abrupt and considerable increase. The trend was confirmed in September. The shortfall of volumes, due to the scarcity of shipments from Israel and the limited imports from Brazil (which would boost the North American market until the end of October), intensified the upward price trend. The second supply source to the European market was Spain, mainly with the Osteen variety. Its cost, relatively high compared to the competition, limited its distribution to primarily the supermarket sector.  

Weeks 44 to 48 : Downturn

At the end of October, Brazilian exports were on the rise, and diversifying with the first Kents. Shipments were mainly aimed at the European markets, gradually shifting away from the North American markets. The price trend, previously having maintained a high level due to a long period of supply slightly below the natural absorption capacities of the market, took a downturn. Brazil remained the only source providing substantial volumes. In mid-November, the rates saw another considerable deterioration. The increase and regularity of the Brazilian shipments satisfied demand, logically causing a dip in prices, which varied between the European markets. Nonetheless, they maintained a decent level with respect to the quantities received, and well above those received at the same time the previous year, for five weeks. Brazilian imports primarily comprised large sizes, more difficult to mark up, especially in the supermarket sector.   

Weeks 49 to 52 :Difficult end to the year 

At the end of November, the market conditions deteriorated steeply right across Europe, with more or less marked price falls. The substantial increase in Brazilian shipments, which built up for three weeks, created an oversupply situation in a context of sluggish demand, which did not pick up in the run-up to the end-of-year holidays. In December, the market was actually in a slump, with a marked oversupply maintaining high pressure on rates. The quantities received were well in excess of the European market’s absorption capacities. Demand remained modest, and the approaching holidays did not seem to restore any interest from buyers. The difference between supply and demand led to the formation of stocks, which only swelled with time .

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