Summer citruses – 2017 forecast

  • Published on 23/06/2017 - Published by IMBERT Eric
  • FruiTrop n°249 , Page From 34 to 37
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A season of market tension in Europe, with one exception

Yes, the citruses market too can show vitality! While world trade is exhibiting some listlessness in most of the big citrus families during the winter season, the summer market is clearly progressing. FruiTrop offers this review of the main trends on this market, as well a detailed forecast for each product.

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With 2.8 million tonnes going to market, citrus volumes from the Southern Hemisphere remain modest, representing barely more than 20 % of total world trade (excluding locally marketed produce). However, the market has seen strong growth, expanding by approximately 200 000 t between 2011 and 2016.

Asia and North America the driving forces of growth

While there is a rise overall, it is far from across the board. The Community market, which remains the number one outlet for counter-season citruses, taking in just over 50 % of volumes, is clearly falling. Imports, nearly 1.3 million tonnes in 2008, fell below the one-million tonnes mark in 2015. As for many products, the summer citruses trade has become globalised. The recovery registered in 2016 in the EU was purely cyclical, and due to the big shortfall in Spanish production in 2015-16. Mediterranean producers have been able to develop a late range competing directly with Southern Hemisphere citruses. Some of this produce will continue to come to the fore in the coming years. This is the case in particular for the lemon and easy peelers, with the orange cultivation area no longer expanding and near maturity in Spain, which controls 50 to 55 % of the Community citrus market. Growth is now to be found on two big markets. Asia is without any doubt the one exhibiting the clearest progress, with imports more than doubling since 2010. This phenomenon should be credited mainly to China, which on its own is responsible for nearly all of the rise. North America too is highly dynamic, though for a product range practically reduced to easy peelers only. The other main world markets are stable (Middle East) or in decline e.g. Eastern Europe, primarily due to the Russian monetary crisis and the political crisis in Ukraine.

southern hemisphere citruses - world trade excl EU
southern hemisphere citruses - world trade excl EU
southern hemisphere citruses - world trade
southern hemisphere citruses - world trade

Big peach and nectarine harvests in Europe in 2017

The context is mixed on the Community market for the campaign getting underway. Competition from winter citruses is set to be rather limited for most products, except for the lemon. Conversely, the stone fruit campaigns are set to be abundant, despite the heavy frost which has hit certain production zones. The European peach and nectarine harvest is distinctly above average, especially due to the bumper production in Italy and above all Greece. Similarly, apricot production is abundant, with the Spanish shortfall offset by Italy and Greece in this case too. Production is considerably ahead of the normal schedule for both these products.

stone fruits - EU - 2017 production forecast
stone fruits - EU - 2017 production forecast

Find detailed forecasts by product in the following articles of this section:

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