Citruses 2017-2018 forecast

  • Published on 4/01/2018 - Published by IMBERT Eric
  • FruiTrop n°253 , Page From 38 to 38
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High prices, to offset a distinct production shortfall

FRUITROP provides a detailed look at the following in the articles below:

-      the 2017-18 forecasts for each fresh citrus supplier country and product,

-      the main consumption trends in the EU-28,

-      the 2017-18 forecasts for the concentrated orange juice market.

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The weather again!

The weather hit the 2016-17 campaign hard. It will continue to drag Mediterranean production down in 2017-18. While of course not all countries are in the same boat, the majority of the big production and export players in the region are approaching this campaign with lower harvests than in 2016-17, and very often below average. This is the case with Spain, a heavyweight of the sector, which is registering a major production shortfall, especially for its specialities, due to a rotten winter 2016-17. Turkey, which has become the region’s number two export power in recent years, is no better off, seeing its harvest dip too after significant frosts during the winter. Similarly, production is set to be rather smaller than the previous year in Morocco, with a hot summer and persistent drought preventing the big surface area expansions over recent years from being implemented. Among the big leaders, only Egypt is seeing a production rise, though in very limited proportions, and after a 2016-17 season in shortfall.  

Renewed interest in fresh citruses

Meanwhile, demand is giving off rather positive signals. After years of flat sales, the western part of the EU-28 has seen an upturn, while the markets in the east of the Community have awoken, probably thanks to the return of economic growth. The news from Russia is rather positive too: demand picked up in 2016-17 boosted by a slightly less weak rouble and the end of the embargo on Turkish produce. More anecdotally, the emerging Asian markets are also purchasing more, although they represent only a minor outlet for most Mediterranean countries. The only cloud over the horizon is the stagnation of Mediterranean exports to the enormous US market, which remains as much an easy peelers under-consumer as ever.

A rather promising context

Hence the context appears relatively positive. Regarding industrial citruses, the market trends remain rather positive for most derivatives. The most iconic, namely orange juice, should see its prices strengthen. True, Brazilian production is back to a high level, though there is a historic shortfall from the Floridian harvest and concentrate stocks have not been as low for years. Finally, in terms of competing products, trends are mixed. The European apple harvest is well below average (- 20 %, see FruiTrop 251), while the banana supply promises to remain fairly large (surface areas expanding in West Africa, reinvestment in production in countries such as Colombia, absence of major climate problems during the critical autumn period, except for the French West Indies).

Retrouvez l'ensemble des articles parus dans ce dossier depuis ces liens: 

2017/ 2018 forecast by product:

Easy Peelers, orange, lemon, grapefruit

2017 /2018 forecast by country: 

Spain, Morocco, Corsica, Israel, Other Mediterranean, Florida

Citruses winter season review 2016/2017

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