Avocado: preview of the 2020-21 winter season in the EU27+UK

Despite the ongoing difficult pandemic context, the market was able to cope with a small rise in volumes (approximately + 6 % on 2019-20, according to provisional figures), registering only a limited drop in rates (down 4 % on our indicator). While the overall supply changed in only moderate proportions, the analysis by supplier country shows major movements, some of which structural in nature. This was not the case for the collapse in Chilean volumes, which were more than 40 % below the two-season average, mainly because of unfavourable weather. Conversely, the very big rise in Mexican and Colombian shipments clearly represents a weighty trend. The combined imports from Michoacán and Jalisco should exceed 100 000 t (80 % above average, i.e. more than doubling in two years!). The origin of this spectacular leap is the surge by the Jalisco cultivation area (35 000 ha in 2020, of which 30 % aged less than 5 years) and for Michoacán operators, more attractive prices in Europe than in the USA. The boom in Colombian shipments (also more than doubling in two years) is also structural, and due to expanding surface areas (probably 30 000 ha during 2020, 10 000 ha of which comprising trees less than 3 years old). We should not be fooled by the lack of movement in Mediterranean volumes in 2020-21. This was due to unfavourable weather or an alternate bearing effect – very significant surface areas of orchards are primed to express their potential in the near future, in Spain, Israel and Morocco.

Customs and professional sources

avocado - EU27 UK - supply

avocado - EU27 UK - supply

avocado - EU27 UK - volumes and prices

avocado - EU27 UK - volumes and prices