FruiTrop Weekly

The positive trend of the European banana market has gone into extra time.The seasonal slowdown in demand is still not making itself felt: cool temperatures, a limited and delayed supply of seasonal fruits, and the appearance of some promotions are contributing to maintaining decent banana consumption.  Furthermore, the overall supply level remains moderate. Combined imports from Africa/French West Indies have risen, though they remain slightly in shortfall (5% below average). In addition, the dollar banana supply has confirmed its downward trend: the smaller production in Colombia is barely being offset by an increase in Costa Rican volumes. Ecuadorian imports have remained stable, though spot availability has been lower (FOB prices on the up). Most of all, the early start to the summer programmes by certain operators is aiding management of volumes during the seasonal transition. In Eastern Europe, after a slowdown at the beginning of the month, sales have confirmed their recovery. Hence a good balance has been observed on most European markets, with green prices strengthening slightly. However in Russia, larger incoming shipments and the heatwave in the country are tending to weaken the market despite CIF prices holding up. Finally, in Spain, the market seems to have finally settled into a summer consumption tempo, with the supply now exceeding demand.

Decent recovery on the European banana market! An overall fall in volumes has helped restore a better market balance. The combined Africa/French West Indies supply has registered levels in shortfall (7% below average), in particular because of falling African shipments, with disruptions by logistical delays. The dollar banana supply also seems to have been more limited (fall in Colombian volumes), and the availability of spot volumes from Ecuador in North European ports has been lower. Furthermore, in France and Northern Europe, local demand has recovered decent vitality for the season, because of temperatures remaining cool and still very limited fruit competition on supermarket shelves. Hence the upturn in demand from East European markets has helped get sales moving, and limit the build-up of stocks. In this context prices have remained stable for African/FWI sources, while an increase has been observed for the dollar banana, back to above-average levels for the season. Similarly after several weeks of idling, livelier demand on the Russian market has helped revitalise its commercial activity. Unlike previously at this time of year, CIF prices have remained stable and high. The only cloud on the scene, the weakening of the Spanish market has intensified because of heavy incoming shipments for this time of year, alongside demand slowed down by rising temperatures.

Despite stabilising somewhat, the European markets have remained fragile. Indeed, despite dollar banana imports remaining stable, the presence of spot supplies in the northern ports has continued to disrupt the balance of certain markets. In spite of public holidays and milder temperatures, local demand in Western Europe has maintained good vitality because of weak competition from other fruits. However, the East European export markets are proving more competitive and under pressure. Hence unsold stocks have started to form on certain North European markets, weakening the balance of these markets. In France, the impact has been more moderate this week thanks to the combined Africa/French West Indies supply returning to average levels (FWI slightly down, Côte d’Ivoire back to average levels, and stable levels from Cameroon and Ghana). In Italy, spot volumes have been very scarce, and the market has remained dynamic. The Russian market has registered a steep price increase. However, in view of the price volatility and slower demand for the past few weeks, the market remains fragile.

In view of rising supply levels, certain European markets have continued to weaken. After several weeks in shortfall, the combined Africa/French West Indies supply is returning to average levels, particularly because of the rise in African volumes (8% above average). Although on the up, the FWI supply is still slightly in shortfall. Furthermore, like last week, spot dollar banana availability has been high (production on the increase and FOB prices low in Ecuador, slowdown in demand on the East European markets), as have Dominican volumes (production peak). So this additional supply has disrupted certain European markets. In France in particular, the good sales dynamic, which previously helped the balance hold up, has slowed down more significantly (school holidays, numerous public holidays, milder temperatures), making these volumes a hindrance on a market already more abundantly supplied. In Italy, the more moderate supply has helped maintain a more positive trend.  Similarly, supply and demand have remained in step in Spain, though with a weakening trend. In Northern Europe, the impact of increasing spot availability seems to have been dampened by consumption maintaining a keen focus on the banana (little interest in seasonal fruits, temperatures still favourable). However, the pressure on the East European markets has been higher, leading to clearances of volumes observed on other European markets. In this context the fall in dollar banana prices has intensified, reaching levels below average for the season. However, prices for the Africa/FWI supply have maintained a good level.

The balance has continued to weaken on all the European markets. However, overall imports are still moderate. Indeed, the rise in the dollar banana is still limited (transfers from Ecuador due to smaller shiploads during Easter week, and slight rise from Costa Rica, though levels still in shortfall from Colombia). In addition, the shortfall from Africa and the French West Indies is still in place, although it is on a downward trend (Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana beginning their ascents). However, greater spot volumes of dollar and Dominican bananas have been available at North and South European ports, and demand on the East European markets has started to slow down more significantly. Hence the market balance in Western Europe has been disrupted, though the ongoing focus of consumption on the banana has helped maintain their balance (cooler temperatures and lower availability of seasonal fruits). In view of this incipient overall weakening, prices have continued to ebb across all the markets, with a more pronounced fall for the dollar banana. In Spain, the limited Platano supply has helped maintain a certain balance, though prices remain stable.Finally, the Russian market is continuing to see idling activity given the falling consumption.

The seasonal deterioration has remained limited on most of the European markets. The overall supply is registering moderate levels across all sources. Indeed, Africa and the French West Indies have remained in shortfall, with a combined supply 15% below average. Similarly on the dollar side, Colombia is still declining, with its shortfall widening because of drought in the production zones. Although expected, the increase from Costa Rica has not yet begun. Finally, Ecuador has maintained decent, stable volumes, with rains favouring production. Furthermore, the seasonal dip in demand has been more pronounced on certain markets. This is the case with France because of the school holidays and a growing interest in seasonal fruits. Similarly, in Italy, after several highly dynamic weeks, the initial signs of deterioration have appeared. However, the moderate volumes have helped keep the markets balanced. Conversely, in Northern Europe, the dip observed in w.16 was only fleeting. Local and export demand have significantly revitalised, especially because of falling temperatures. Overall, prices have dropped slightly, though they remain above average for the season. In Spain, the slowdown has paused because of cooler temperatures reinvigorating banana consumption. In Eastern Europe, improved vitality has been observed because of falling yellow banana prices. However, some stocks have remained available. Finally, in Russia, a steep drop in prices has been observed, and stocks have remained available.