Nicaragua, Panama and Peru could not care less about exceeding the guidance thresholds set by the various trade agreements they have signed with the EU. Their relatively low weight on the market is doubtless the reason for a certain lack of interest from the European authorities. They did once again open an inquiry, which concluded, once again, that this breach was non-disruptive. Move along, nothing to see here! Yet the monitoring needs to continue, and indeed be done better, for example by switching from a calendar year view to a 12-month sliding scale, the only representation that provides an understanding of an origin’s dynamic on a market. As at April 2017 (Eurostat data), we find Nicaragua at more than 400 % of its guidance quantity, i.e. 56 000 t for a guidance threshold of 14 000 t. Outside of the monitoring system, Mexico is another origin on an exceptionally steep rise. As proof, it registered a growth rate over the first four months of 2017 of 20 %, reaching 25 000 t. True, the volumes in question are relatively small, but given that at the same time Mexico achieved + 35 % on the US market for a volume of 121 000 t, and the Mexican sector has 12 000 ha of Cavendish at its disposal, it is impossible to completely ignore the dynamic of such a country.
Source: CIRAD
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