orange : 2017-2018 citruses forecast

  • Published on 12/12/2017 - Published by IMBERT Eric
  • FruiTrop n°253 , Page From 52 to 52
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A season taking a similar shape to the easy peelers, though with a dark cloud

 

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Just as for easy peelers, the scenario for this campaign will bear the mark of the big Spanish production shortfall.  Which is only logical, since while the Spanish giant occupies a slightly less dominant position for the orange than for easy peelers, it nonetheless controls practically two-thirds of the winter Community market. With 3.2 million tonnes, the Spanish harvest is registering a level approximately 8 % below average. The relatively good performance of produce from Andalusia, a region which plays a fairly significant role for this citrus family, is helping offset the big fall in volumes from the Valencian Community. As with easy peelers, there will be high tension during the mid-season (November-December-January), with Naveline registering a particularly marked production shortfall in the Valencian Community, the leading zone for this variety (23 % below average).

The supply is set for a better level during the second part of the season. On the one hand, production of late Navel (Lanelate) and super-late Navel (especially Powell and Chislett) is set to be 12 % less than in 2016-17 in the Valencian Community, though around average, since the production prime phase of the young orchards is helping to attenuate the effects of climate. On the other hand, there will also be a normal harvest once more for the Valencia and Valencia-like group, particularly Delta and Midknight, which have been heavily planted in recent years. Nonetheless, this return to normal production levels will not entail an average supply level, since these varieties, whose season will probably start early for lack of a sufficient Naveline supply, will need to cover a wider market period.

The trends are highly variable in terms of the top-up origins. Egypt, which has been constantly rising to prominence over the past three seasons, actually seizing 15 % of the winter market in 2016-17 with nearly 300 000 t, will have a bigger harvest (+ 5 to + 10 %). Similarly, Italy will regain a less meagre production level than in 2016-17, although it will barely reach average (good harvest once again good for Tarocco/Moro blood oranges). There will be a twofold effect on the Community market supply: exports should climb slightly, and above all imports from other Mediterranean countries will return to a normal level (rise of 100 000 t in 2016-17), releasing additional volumes for the other markets. Conversely, Morocco, which is tending to return to the Community market after practically deserting it, will see its production ebb.

mediterranean orange - 2017-18 production forecast
mediterranean orange - 2017-18 production forecast

 

orange - EU - supply in winter
orange - EU - supply in winter

 

orange - EU - winter season imports
orange - EU - winter season imports

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