European apples and pears : prospects for 2017-18

  • Published on 3/10/2017 - Published by BENOIT-CELEYRETTE Cécilia
  • FruiTrop n°251 , Page From 20 to 23
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a touch of optimism, especially for the apple

As is the annual custom, 300 representatives of the apple and pear sector came together for the 41st Prognosfruit Conference, which was held in early August in Lerida, Spain. The harvest forecasts unveiled on this occasion reflect the effects of the spring frosts and early summer droughts, leading to the smallest apple harvest for the past decade and reduced pear production, similar to last year.

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Quantitatively, these shortfalls amount to a considerable fall of 21 % for the apple from 2016 (9.43 million tonnes, i.e. - 17 % on the 5-year average) and of 1 % for the pear (2.18 million tonnes, i.e. - 4 % on the 5-year average). Furthermore, the fresh shortfall should be aggravated by more substantial flows to the industrial sector, especially for the apple. Hence the situation should be better for the apple compared to the previous three years, with some balance between supply and demand, which is encouraging “cautious optimism”, as the WAPA press release put it, although the effects of the Russian embargo will last, and uncertainties remain with Brexit. The good pear market conditions for the year 2016 should probably be repeated. The campaign has been marked by an early start to the season, up to a fortnight ahead of schedule in certain production zones.

Apple

Marked falls in most countries, especially in high-altitude zones and Eastern Europe…

With severe losses in certain countries due to frosts, the 2017 harvest is a long way off the 12-million tonne mark for the last three years, which has seen practically maximum production. The fall is attributable to the April frosts which hit all the Alpine production zones hard (Northern Italy, Austria, Switzerland, Southern Germany, South-Eastern France), and the regions without modern equipment to combat this type of frost, especially Limburg in Belgium. For its part, Eastern Europe was more affected by the May frosts, when the buds had yet to open. Hence losses amounted to 71 % on the 5-year average in Belgium, 53 % in Austria, 43 % in Germany and 21 % in Italy and Switzerland. Poland should have a fall of at least 20 %, in the knowledge that half of production will be aimed at the industrial sector, while the fall should be 88 % in Slovenia and 19 % in the Czech Republic.

The other big East European countries have also been affected, with an expected fall of 30 % in Russia (1.1 million tonnes) and 12 % in Ukraine (1.007 million tonnes). North American countries have been relatively spared, following on from last year’s good harvest, announcing falls in potential of - 5 to - 3 %, in both the United States (4.849 million tonnes) and Canada (313 000 t). Chinese growth has abated with production comparable to 2016, though it has still reached 43.8 million tonnes! So the situation could be particularly favourable for countries which had been spared by the frost, especially France, although certain zones have nonetheless been affected (- 5 % on the 5-year average). In addition, little competition is expected from Italy or Poland, and increased demand from North European countries such as Germany, Belgium and even the United Kingdom, exhibiting a level 24% below the 5-year average, especially since family orchards in these countries have also been hard hit.

… which should be aggravated as the campaign progresses

The shortfall could be more marked in the second part of the campaign, since it is primarily the late varieties that were hardest hit, especially Golden Delicious (- 20 %) and the entire Jonagold/Jonagored/Idared varietal group (- 36 %), as well as Elstar (- 30 %) and Braeburn (- 25 %). There will of course be very little Boskoop, in view of the shortfall in Belgium (- 53 %). Conversely, harvest levels are set to be good for Gala (- 3 % on 2016 and + 1 % on the 5-year average) and even Fuji (- 2 % on 2016 and + 4 % on the 5-year average). The harvest will be slightly less than last year for Granny (- 9 %), though near-average for the past five campaigns (- 4 %).  For club varieties, a small fall is expected from last campaign (- 2 % for Cripps Pink and - 15 % for other new varieties), though mitigated by the development of the young orchards.

Pear

Production still average

The situation is less clear-cut for the pear, with a harvest which should at the most maintain its 2016 level. While Germany and Benelux are set for production shortfalls, they will partly be offset by better volumes in Portugal, in shortfall for the past two years. Hence without reaching its record 2014 level (203 000 t), the Portuguese harvest should be 28 % above the five-year average (+ 65 % on 2016!), i.e. the fourth biggest harvest for the past ten campaigns. Italy should see a fairly minor downturn, with volumes slightly bigger than last year (+ 5 %) and around the five-year average (+ 1 %). In Spain, quantities should be at the most stable from 2016, i.e. a level 14 % below the 5-year average. France should see a downturn of 6 % from 2016 (- 7 % on the 5-year average). Germany should see an especially marked downturn (- 50 % on the 5-year average), as to a lesser degree should the Netherlands (- 18 %) and Belgium (- 7 %). Eastern Europe meanwhile was hardest hit, with volumes set to be below the 5-year average (-32 % in Poland, -10 % in Romania and -37 % in Russia). US production is set to be average, at around 592 000 tonnes (- 3 % on 2016 and - 10 % on the 5-year average).

Good Rocha and Abate volumes, and a moderate shortfall for Conference

The potential should be smaller for most varieties, with the exception of the Portuguese Rocha (+ 28 % on the 5-year average) and Abate (+ 7 %). The fall seems marked for only a few varieties, typically the autumn-winter varieties such as Comice (- 35 %), Durondeau (- 40 %) and Passe-Crassane (- 23 %), whose surface areas are shrinking, and to a lesser degree, for the summer varieties (- 9 % for Guyot or Williams). Similarly, Conference should ultimately see a downturn of just 4 % 

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