Although still greatly disrupted by intra and extra-European political challenges, the counter-season tomato market is currently falling foul above all of climate changes which are directly affecting yields and putting the effects of Brexit or the Russian embargo in the shade. Hence the 2017-18 campaign could well resemble the previous one, which was hard hit by heat and subject to high parasite pressure, but which ended up earning good value due to the reduced competition. In addition, no decision is expected for this campaign in terms of the lifting of the Russian embargo or Brexit.
The counter-season tomato market, although still hard hit by political, climate and economic events rocking the European market, seems for the past two years to have entered a calmer phase in purely commercial terms. Although the raw extra-European import figures hint at a swelling market, with a new record set in 2016-17, this is solely attributable to the rerouting of Turkish tomatoes due to the Russian embargo (nearly 100 000 t, i.e. + 70 % on the 3-year average) to Eastern Europe primarily, and some to Central Europe. Yet paradoxically, the image of last campaign was that of a market without high pressure, enabling operators to earn good value for their produce.
While volumes imported into Europe exceeded the 500 000-t mark (+ 7 % on 2015-16), tonnages aimed at Western Europe were stable, or even slightly down. Hence imports from Morocco stabilised (374 500 t, i.e. - 1 %) and imports from other top-up origins apparently ebbed, with Tunisia (- 17 %) and Senegal (- 22 %) each exporting approximately 8 500 tonnes to Europe. As for Israel, the quantities again saw a clear fall, with a ten-fold reduction in just six years (1 190 t, i.e. - 22 %). This decline is however not attributable to the Spanish presence, which was less marked as in 2016-17, with only just over 700 000 t of shipments to the European market (- 12 % on 2015-16), according to European Customs figures taken between October and May. Nor was there any real consumption slowdown, although European production with artificial lighting has made progress, especially in Northern Europe, and to a lesser degree in France, where it starts early from March. Conversely, the market has exhibited fairly good demand, especially from early 2017, and therefore been under-supplied, making it possible to obtain lucrative prices for most tomato segments, especially at the beginning of the season.
So the fall in production is above all attributable to the climate conditions (high temperatures in summer, abundant rains in winter), and to a high parasite pressure in most Mediterranean countries, because of leaf curl virus, New Dehli or Tuta absoluta, with the latter considerably more widespread in Morocco last year. Hence production was slightly in shortfall in Spain last campaign (- 3 % on 2015-16 according to the official figures of the Ministry of Agriculture for the four main winter tomato production zones), in spite of similar surface areas overall to the previous campaign, although a 2 % decrease had been announced last year for Almeria. There was a very wide shortfall again for the Murcia zone at the beginning of the campaign with the summer heat (- 36 % on the three-year average), despite distinctly larger quantities than the previous campaign (+ 57 %). The volume also fell in the Canaries’ season due to shrinking surface areas, down again by 2 % on 2015-16 (610 ha, i.e. 62 000 t). Conversely, while surface areas were stable in Morocco, the beginning of the season was again cut short last year by the high summer temperatures.
So the market was tight from the beginning of the season. The high autumn temperatures then led to rapid growth in volumes and a considerable fall in rates on a flat market, which led to very low price levels in November, with as little as 0.45-0.50 euro/kg. Yet the market recovered very quickly after the end-of-year holidays, with the cold weather reducing production in both Spain and Morocco. Rates strengthened further at the beginning of the year and remained high, although competition with European produce intensified. Mediterranean production, especially Spanish, remained below average for the season due to large-scale sorting required by the early heat. Demand rapidly picked up in April, boosted by the Easter holidays (16 April) and by an early spring. This had a positive effect, with Spanish exports, taken between May and October, gaining 8 % in value, and imports from Morocco gaining 12 % in value according to European Customs figures.
It should be emphasised that the trends vary between the different European Union markets. Certain destinations have now reached full maturity, whereas others are still open to extra-Community produce. While the French market remains by far the main outlet for Moroccan tomatoes, demand is often hesitant and importers based in Saint-Charles or even Rungis are increasingly re-exporting merchandise to other European Community countries. So French imports levelled out at 280 000 to 300 000 t, though this is after gaining 28 600 t in ten years! It is above all the big North European markets which are now the main driving forces behind European growth in the counter-season tomato, although Spain still has a strong presence in these destinations. Progress has been particularly marked over the past decade to the United Kingdom (+ 35 000 t) and the Netherlands (23 000 t), rather steady to Germany and Austria (7 200 t) and highly significant recently to Poland (15 000 t). Oddly, there has been a very considerable rise for the past three years on the Spanish market (from 15 000 to 20 000 t imported before 2015-16, 29 000 t in 2015-16 and 38 500 t in 2016-17), making this country, despite being an exporter, the number four destination for extra-European tomatoes! Finally, we should report that volumes rose again to Romania and Bulgaria, which as an indirect effect of the Russian embargo, practically regained their import level of a decade ago, with primarily an increase in flows from Turkey.
The trend might well be confirmed this campaign, with the same effects and probably the same consequences. Surface areas are stable overall, or at the very most up slightly in Spain. There was another trade-off between crops in Almeria, which should lead to stabilisation and perhaps a fall in courgette surface areas, at the very least at the beginning of the season due to the problems associated with New Delhi virus. Yet this trade-off was of most benefit to the pepper (+ 5 to + 10 %), with a small rise too for the tomato. And although planting was carried out earlier, the supply was reduced again at the beginning of the season by the summer heat and drought ravaging the whole of Southern Spain. Hence volumes from Murcia remained anecdotal in September, meaning that the contracts could not always be covered, while progress in Almeria was not really expected before late October.
In Morocco, there should be no growth in surface areas, since producers are banking instead on other crops such as berries, including in the Marrakech zone. In addition, yields there could be reduced by parasite pressure, since although measures have been taken to combat Tuta absoluta in particular, the nature of the equipment (cold shelters) makes it difficult to hermetically seal the greenhouses. Finally, the campaign did not really start before mid-October for this origin because of the summer heat.
The politico-economic context should see little change, with the Russian government having decided against lifting the embargo on Turkey, so as to aid the development of local produce; while the effects of Brexit should not make themselves felt yet since the negotiations begun in 2017 between the EU and the United Kingdom are not due to end until 2019! The struggle between the European Union and representatives of Western Sahara is also ongoing. A first audience before the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for the representatives of the Polisario (Western Sahara organisation) was held on 6 September. It argues that European imports of agricultural produce from this territory, with mainly the tomato from the Sahara, are illegal since “produce from Western Sahara must not be considered as originating from Morocco for the purposes of preferential tariffs or any other advantage conferred to Moroccan products by the European Union”. So the ECJ heard the plea and scheduled the summing up of the Attorney General for 15 December, before issuing its decision in Q1 2018. As a reminder, the tariff quota is now fixed for Moroccan tomatoes (257 000 t + 28 000 t additional quota), with the entry price still stable for the moment.
Cécilia Céleyrette, consultant
c.celeyrette@infofruit.fr
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