Over the last twelve months (October 2016 to September 2017), it has touched on the 6.3-million tonnes mark; which is 4.3 % more than for the previous period. In September 2017, it actually reached 510 000 t, i.e. the highest ever level for a September. Over nine months, the growth rate was 4.7 %. The dollar origins were the big movers, with a 10 % rise! The African ACPs were trailing at +1.4 %, handicapped by the Cameroon’s poor performance. The Caribbean and Latin American ACPs were down by 13 % due to the fall by the Dominican Republic and Surinam. The trend was the same for European production, which fell by 12 %. It was French production which was impeding the trend, with the Canaries seeing only a very slight decline. The effects of the very lively 2017 cyclone season in the Caribbean should affect the supply balance from October. However, the initial data originating from the Customs releases (source: Taxud) for October show that the dollar origins very easily offset the shortfall, with an estimated increase of 13% at least for October 2017 compared to October 2016! This helps explain the flat market and the fact that the losses in the Caribbean went completely unnoticed. We might also ask what consequences there would have been for prices had the Caribbean supply level been normal.
US consumption picked up in September 2017 to 359 000 t (+ 11 %), taking an upturn after a 4 % drop in August. Over nine months, it climbed by 4 %, and over twelve months by 2.6 % to 4 166 000 t. Guatemala and Costa Rica continued their ascent in North America with growth rates over nine months of 16 % and 18 % respectively. Mexico enjoyed a boom (+ 31 %) to become the number 5 supplier. Ecuador slumped by 33 %, clearly opting for Europe, Russia and the Near and Middle Eastern markets.
Source: CIRAD
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