Just as for the orange and easy peelers, it is of course Spanish production which we need to look at first, since this origin controls more than 80 % of the Community market. Unlike the above-mentioned fruits, Iberian production is registering an above-average level, similar to last season. This trend is highly symptomatic of the considerable increase in surface areas registered in recent seasons! However, this forecast made at the beginning of the season could be revised downward, especially for Primofiore, if the rains do not show up during the winter. The top-up origins are exhibiting very different production trends. Turkey should not be able to recover its market share, which has tended to decline since the beginning of the decade (going from approximately 20 % to 15 % in recent seasons, when Spanish production was normal). The harvest was hard hit by the 2016-17 winter frost, and by a very hot summer. The shortfall, which was large for Interdonato (a half-harvest), will remain significant for Lama (- 20 % approximately). Conversely, this season Italy will see a good harvest. This trend too is symptomatic of the young orchards planted in Sicily in recent seasons coming into their prime.
Overall, the combined production of the Mediterranean leaders is set to be smaller than in 2016-17, while demand is exhibiting real growth dynamic in both the eastern and western EC. So prices should register a very good level again this season, indeed slightly higher than in 2016-17.
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