Tension and high prices: this is the scene set for the 2017-18 campaign. Most of the main suppliers to the Community market are registering a significant production shortfall. Spain, which on its own accounts for nearly three-quarters of the supply, is the country hardest hit with a harvest of less than 2 million tonnes (its lowest level for a decade), a figure which is 13 % below the two-year average. The shortfall is particularly significant for the clementine, including the flagship variety Nules (20 % below average for this group). Hence the supply to the European market is set for a considerable shortfall during the mid-season. The other suppliers to the Community market play only a minor role during this first part of the season. Corsica, which practically exclusively supplies the French market, has a big shortfall after a record 2016-17 season. The export potential of the clementine is still very uncertain in Morocco. Despite the boom in surface areas, production is disappointing and sizing limited, in particular in the Souss and Oriental regions, where the irrigation infrastructures are still insufficient. So November and December should see good rates levels, in particular for big and average fruits.
Volumes available should return to an average level in the first part of the season, with the young hybrid orchards planted in recent seasons entering into production or their production prime, thereby offsetting the damaging climate or alternate bearing phenomena. In Morocco, Nadorcott production is reportedly up by approximately 10 % on last season, despite the cultivation area practically stabilised at approximately 6 000 ha. Similarly, in Spain, the Nadorcott harvest is set to be slightly bigger than the previous one, and likewise for Orri. Furthermore, this season should also see Iberian production of the Tango variety really get going on the Community market, with volumes estimated 25 000 t according to the official source. However, these modest rises should be counterbalanced by a considerable fall in Israeli Orri production (- 30 %, rebounding from the record 165 000 t in the previous campaign). So in this context of stable volumes, prices should be high during this second part of the season, especially since the transition between clementines / early season hybrids and end-of-season hybrids should proceed in a less troubled context than in 2016-17 (when major qualitative problems weighed down on prices of all varieties).
The EU-28 is not expected to be the only very open market. Russia, an outlet taking in more than 700 000 t (i.e. the equivalent of 40 % of EC consumption) returned to the market in 2016-17, thanks to a slight rise in the rouble and the end of the embargo on Turkish produce (though the one on EC produce remains in force). The big production shortfall from Turkey (- 25 % on the 2016-17 season), its main supplier, should benefit Morocco, which also serves the Community market. Conversely, the small decrease in Californian production (- 4 % on 2016-17 to 870 000 t) should hardly change the deal, with the big US market still just as low-consuming (2.5 kg/capita) and just as restricted to Mediterranean produce, exports of which stagnated at 75 000-80 000 t (Morocco on the up to the detriment of Spain).
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