Southern Hemisphere apple and pear production forecast to decline

On February 24, WAPA released the Southern Hemisphere apple and pear crop forecast. Apple production is forecast to be down by -7% to 4,864,000 tons. A decrease linked to the reduction of production in Brazil by -30% and -11% in Argentina. Australia and Chile announced a smaller decrease at -3% and -2% respectively. On the other hand, New Zealand and South Africa are the only countries where apple production is expected to increase by +15% and +4% respectively. Chile remains the largest producer of Southern Hemisphere apples with 1,455,000 tons followed by South Africa with 1,163,000 tons, Brazil 900,000 tons, New Zealand at 590,000 tons, Argentina ) 445,000 tons and Australia with 311,000 tons. With a volume of 1,706,000 tons, the Gala variety remains the most important variety produced, while its production is expected to decrease by -7% compared to 2021. Despite this drop in production, exports are expected to remain stable at 1 744 762 tons, with a larger volume from New Zealand (+17%) and South Africa (+6%) compensating for a drop in exports from Brazil of -65%.

For pears, Southern Hemisphere producing countries are forecasting a 6% drop in the harvest, bringing volumes down to 1,229,000 tons. A regression mainly linked to a -13% decrease in production in Argentina, -11% in Chile and -6% in Australia. New Zealand and South Africa announced an increase in production of +31% and +5% respectively. Argentina remains the leading country in production with 522,000 tons, followed by South Africa with 492,000 tons, Chile 122,000 tons, Australia 81,000 tons and New Zealand (11,000 tons).

The Packham's Triumph variety remains in the majority with 444,000 tons despite a decrease of -4% over one year. It is followed by William's with 306,000 tons.

Exports of pears are expected to be down by -6% year-on-year with a total of 641,207 tons due to the drop in exports from Argentina (-14%).

In the Northern Hemisphere, U.S. stocks of apples reach 1,478,180 tons (-1% year-on-year) and pears 149,553 tons (+32% year-on-year) on February 1, 2022. In Europe, apple stocks are up +7% to 3,6060,980 tons and pear stocks are down -30% year-on-year to 408,340 tons.

This season is marked by the logistical and cost impacts on international markets. The United States concentrated its apple and pear sales on North America. European markets continue to be affected by the Belarusian embargo while the war in Ukraine could have an impact on sales in all Eastern European countries.