Has the avocado market lost one of the characteristics that made it so unique in the fruits and vegetables trade: being governed by demand? In any event, the massive surface area expansions in recent years are raising questions. Bearing in mind the economic and social challenges posed by this major fruit industry, FruiTrop has decided to initiate a prospective work, the objective of which is to analyse the evolution between supply and demand over the medium/long term (2021-2028). Also taking into account the intrinsically fraught nature of this type of exercise, we have opted to build this study based on field data (cultivation areas, production systems, yields), an approach which seems less haphazard than the purely statistical analyses presented in some works. The initial trends arising from this exploratory work indicate that the supply growth dynamic is now greater than the demand growth dynamic. This study is intended to be an initial step towards a more advanced and ideally collaborative model, built with the help of and for professionals from the avocado world.
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