2019 counter-season avocado campaign

In 2018, volumes shipped to the EC market saw exceptional growth (more than 50 %!). This will not be the case in 2019. South Africa and Peru, the two leading suppliers to the world number two market, are set for production levels unchanged from or less than those of 2018. In South Africa, the harvest is reportedly down by approximately 30 %. The negative effects of alternate bearing and of a heatwave in September/October should only be partially offset by the new orchards entering production. Exports, still practically exclusively bound for Europe, should be around 60 000 to 65 000 t. In Peru, production and export potential should be of a similar level to 2018 (approximately 360 000 t for exports, according to Peruvian Customs). However, the marketing calendar would appear to be different, with the supply on the rise at the beginning of the season (production from the Olmos irrigated area coming into its prime), and smaller volumes during the mid-season (high physiological droppage in the Chavimochic area and the Lima valleys). Exports to Asia should continue to rise, and the US market appears more open (Mexico retaining a strong presence, but Californian production historically low). Hence a fall of approximately 10 % in shipments to the EU-28 is expected. If these forecasts are realised, the combined supply from the two heavyweights of the EC market should be approximately 15 % less than in 2018.

avocado - EU - imports from southern africa and peru