Floridian orange production has halved over the past decade, going from approximately 170 million to 82 million field crates (i.e. 7 to less than 3.5 million tonnes)
The FDOC is reckoning on a much more moderate fall in its latest long-term forecasts. The harvest should be around 77 to 78 million boxes by the end of the next decade, if the yield does not fall and the replanting rate remains stable (currently half of mortality rate). This relatively good news is unfortunately contradicted by the USDA’s forecast for 2016-17, released in mid-October, which is reckoning on another steep drop of 15 % on the 2015-16 figures, with a harvest of approximately 70 million boxes.
Sources: FDOC, USDA
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