Orange juice: a paradigm shift?

  • Published on 11/04/2017 - Published by Market News Service / FruiTrop
  • FruiTrop n°247 , Page From 5 to 5
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orange - florida and brazil - combined production
orange - florida and brazil - combined production

g trite about describing concentrated orange juice prices as on top form, having exceeded since early December 2016 the hitherto unknown level of 3 000 USD/tonne into Rotterdam. The origin of this record would not seem to lie on the consumption side, which is in structural decline, although the 2016 figures which would provide confirmation are not yet available. It is instead the fall in supply, also a structural phenomenon but particularly marked in 2016-17, which has set rates soaring. With 70 million field crates, the Floridian giant’s harvest has plummeted to its lowest level for around fifty years, and some experts even regard this forecast as overoptimistic. Similarly, Brazil has recorded its poorest performance since the early 1990s in terms of volume produced, with approximately 260 million field crates, with juice yields in parallel registering a particularly low level. Will this situation last? Opinions are divided. The return to a more substantial production in Brazil (320 to 330 million field crates according to certain estimates), in an ongoing context of depressed demand, would result in a downward rate trend. While these arguments must be considered, we also need to reckon with the phenomenal fall in stocks, which should be just 70 000 tonnes in June 2017, a level one tenth what it was four years previously. This movement represents a genuine paradigm shift for this market, structurally weighed down in the past by stocks equivalent to one year’s consumption.

Sources: FoodNews, Citrus BR,
Ultimate Citrus, FDOC

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