The magnitude of the Brazilian harvest is more than ever the orange juice price gauge, with Florida now only playing second fiddle due to the collapse of its production. Hence the Brazilian harvest in 2018-19 is set to be rather lean: the 288 million field crates expected in Sao Paulo State and the Triangulo Mineiro zone marked a downturn of approximately 28 % from the bumper 2017-18 season, a level 10% below the six-year average. The fault lies with the alternate bearing phenomenon and the rather unfavourable climate conditions for fruit setting. This fall came while Brazilian stocks maintained a low level, despite a big climb from June 2017 (306 000 t in June 2018 as opposed to 107 000 t in June 2017, yet from 510 000 to more than 760 000 t from June 2012 to June 2015). In all probability, they should plummet between 55 000 and 155 000 t in June 2019 according to Citrus BR. Given this prospect of limited production and stocks, prices of 65°B concentrate quite logically began to increase, reaching 2 400 USD/t into Rotterdam in late April (+ 300 USD/t). The recent survey conducted by Fundecitrus demonstrated a near status quo in the cultivation area. While surface areas collapsed by approximately 30 000 ha between 2015 and 2018, the number of trees remained practically stable at 194.4 million (- 1.7 % on 2015) thanks to the increasingly widespread practice of high-density planting (668 trees per ha in 2018 as opposed to 550 in 2010). Furthermore, the cultivation area is increasingly concentrated in the hands of medium to large and high-tech facilities. Hence approximately 1 700 production facilities disappeared between 2015 and 2018, which practically all comprised less than 50 ha. The planting rate remained stable at approximately 7 to 8 million trees per year since 2015, a level well below the 10 to 12 million trees seen at the beginning of the decade.
Sources: Fundecitrus, Citrus BR, IEG
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