2018-19 Chilean avocado campaign review

The Chilean avocado campaign is nearing its end, and the time has come to draw some conclusions. The beginning of the campaign heralded a production potential that was 9 % up on 2017-18, itself 12 % higher than in 2016-17. While the upward trend seemed to be confirmed, it was disrupted by a phenomenon which though new, is far from merely cyclical: the extension of the end of the Peruvian campaign. Instead of shipping its last big volumes until week 37 as in 2017, in 2018 Peru continued to occupy the market until week 42! This upset the handover between the two South American origins. Although the profile of the 2018-19 Chilean campaign was similar to the previous year, the main difference is that significant volumes only established themselves on the market five weeks later. Unable to make good this delay, the Chilean campaign finished with volumes 10 % below the previous campaign on the European market, and 6 % below the previous campaign on the US market.

In all probability, this is not an anecdotal year, but much more likely a new market trend. Given the rise of Peruvian production and its turn toward the late-season segment, Chile could be forced to start later and focus its volumes on the rest of the season. However, we should note that 2019 could be a year of exception to this new rule, with the Peruvian export potential set to be lower than in 2018.