The supply to the European counter-season avocado market should be even bigger than in 2020. Unsurprisingly given the still very strong expansion dynamic in its surface areas, the Peruvian supply should see a considerable rise. As a reminder, it is what structures the summer market, with Peruvian avocados representing two-thirds of the EC’s supply from April to October. According to ProHass, the Hass export potential, across all destinations, should be around 460 000 tonnes as opposed to 367 000 tonnes in 2020 (record increase of 26 %). Volumes aimed at the Old Continent should rise in more modest proportions, since certain alternative markets appear very open, such as the USA (78 000 t in 2020), Chile (25 000 t) and Asia (34 000 t). The programme is banking on 260 000 t of Hass exports to the EU27+UK, i.e. approximately a 15 % rise from 2020 (280 000 to 285 000 t across all varieties). The South African export potential, as fully aimed as ever at the EC market, should rise by approximately 10 % (16.5 million boxes, as opposed to 15 in 2020). Conversely, Kenya has smaller volumes than last season, despite rapidly expanding surface areas. We also need to reckon with Colombian fruit from the second bloom, volumes of which could be up by 20 to 30 % (approximately 26 000 t between April and September in 2020). Brazil, Tanzania and Mozambique will continue to offer a moderate top-up supply. Overall, the expected supply to the EU27+UK could see a rise of approximately 10 to 15 %.
avocado - EU imports - april 2021
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