US avocado market: an insufficient supply in 2022!

We should not misinterpret the significant fall in consumption in the USA, down from 3.9 kg/capita in 2021 to 3.6 kg in 2022. It does not signify a new, sudden disaffection among the American public with the avocado, but rather is down to a very limited supply of Mexican fruit due to a very limited harvest in Michoacán in 2021-22. We should remember that the supply to the world’s leading market has very little diversity, because of strict sanitary regulations on imports and the extreme ease of working with the enormous production reservoir of its Southern neighbour. In this context it is hard to make up a production fall from such an essential supplier at short notice. The fall affected all the major regions in the USA to varying extents, from very slightly (Great Lakes, California with 0 to - 2 %) to significantly (- 7 to - 15 % on the East Coast). The sales dynamic was a bit late in recovering in Q4 2022, despite Mexican production returning to abundance, with retail prices maintaining the very high levels charged during the lean period. It now seems to be well and truly re-established.

Sources: HAB, CIRAD

US avocado consumption 2022