Fate seems to have it in for Floridian producers. The industry has been faced since 2005 with a mortal enemy, greening, which has literally flattened production, with levels reduced fivefold in the space of a decade. Now it must also cope with the consequences of Hurricane Irma, which hit the State in early September with category 3 winds. Although it made landfall on the West coast, i.e. opposite the big Indian River orchards, it will have major direct consequences on the 2017-18 harvest. With fewer than 4.65 million field crates (180 000 t), production is registering its lowest level since the end of WW2, and is 40 % down on last season. To make things worse, big fruits seem to have been hardest hit by the winds. Hence the fall in export potential could be of a level comparable to or greater than for production. The US press is reckoning on levels being halved. As a reminder, Florida shipped 1.4 million export boxes to the EU-28 in 2016-17. The sole reasons for any satisfaction for tropical grapefruit lovers on the Old Continent is the slight bounce-back by Texan production (+ 10 %), to register for the first time a level comparable to Florida.
Unfortunately, this second stroke of fate will also have long-term consequences. Production infrastructures have been affected, starting with the trees themselves. Leaving aside the uprooted trees, certain orchards remained flooded for a long period, which can cause sometimes lethal asphyxia. So the reduction in the number of trees in production could gather pace, augmenting an already clear trend (1 million trees lost between 2010 and 2016, i.e. approximately 20 % of the total). While this makes for a very gloomy outlook, there are still reasons for hope. The creation of greening resistant varieties is no longer a mirage, but a question of years given advances in research (whether or not public opinion accepts them, for certain promising options employing genetic engineering). Yet will producers be able to wait that long? It is the sum of local or Federal aid allocated to heal the wounds of Irma that will decide. Nothing has been achieved for the moment, but the lobbying groups are active and the sector is an economic and social heavyweight.
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