The foundations of the market have remained stable. Unprocessed nut imports and exports of cashew kernels (shelled nuts) from India and Vietnam, which between them account for 90 % of the world shelling industry, confirmed the estimates from previous months. West African production has remained fairly similar to 2015, under the effect of a fall in yields per tree, which has overall offset the increase in surface areas. Harvests in India and Vietnam were slightly smaller than last year, again due to a fall in yield, while the surface areas in production are relatively stable. The good harvests in East Africa (Tanzania and Mozambique) and in Indonesia, in progress since early October, are insufficient to offset the shortfall from this campaign, since the Southern Hemisphere countries account for just 15 % of world production. On the demand side, the high price of the cashew compared to its main competitors (almond and hazelnut) is causing a slowdown in demand, especially in the United States and India, which has hitherto been insufficient to offset the product shortfall on the world market. Stocks available should remain relatively low until the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere harvests next March. For the moment, the prospects for the 2017 harvests are good, in both Asia and West Africa, thanks to a normal to slightly above-average rainy season. In West Africa, the beginning and end of the rainy season were rather early, and so the harvests should start earlier than last year. At present in northern Côte d’Ivoire, approximately one-third of trees have already begun flowering and so should bear their first nuts towards late January. If temperatures are not too high and the Harmattan does not blow too strongly in December and January, yields could be considerably greater than the previous year in West Africa. Bearing in mind that productive surface areas are continuously increasing, thanks to the strong incentive provided by the high prices over the past three campaigns to small planters on the Sahelo-Sudan strip, we can expect a much bigger 2017 harvest in the sub-region, and a gradual decrease in prices over the next campaign.
Source: RONGEAD
Click "Continue" to continue shopping or "See your basket" to complete the order.
