Unlike the other citrus families, easy peelers should have a fairly classic scenario. The supply to the European market, which has been stagnating for a decade at between 160 000 and 180 000 t, should be toward the top of the range in 2016, and continue the upgrading process.
South Africa will be able to increase its market share in the Community. Production is continuing to surge, thanks to the additional 2 700 ha planted between the beginning of the decade and 2014. The climate problems which hit the northern part had only a very limited impact on this citrus family, with three-quarters of the cultivation area packed into the southern part (Eastern and Western Cape provinces). Hence exports should set a record level of 11.2 million boxes, marking a rise of just over 10 % on the 2015 season and 24 % on the four-year average. Unsurprisingly, the increase in volumes will be considerable for Nova, a variety widely planted until 2012, and for late hybrids. Large surface areas of young Nadorcott and Tango orchards, planted in 2011 and 2012, are starting to come into their prime, with an apparently decent sizing. As in previous years, the Community market should receive the majority of volumes.
Peru will have a potential “only” slightly bigger than in 2015; which is a surprise, given the extremely rapid growth of the cultivation area (+ 1 000 ha per year according to ProCitrus, primarily planted with late varieties). Shipments to the EU-28 could well stagnate at between 50 000 and 60 000 t, as has been the case for several seasons. Faced with increasingly selective European importers, Peruvian exporters should continue their diversification efforts. North America is now on the heels of the Community market in terms of volume, while shipments to Latin America are booming, exceeding 10 000 t in 2015. The opening in late 2015 of the Brazilian market should reinforce this trend.
Argentinean and Uruguayan easy peelers should again have a very discreet presence this season. Having started the decade among the top suppliers to the Community market with annual shipments of around 35 000 to 40 000 t, these two sources have declined to the point of volumes barely exceeding 10 000 t for Uruguay and 4 000 t for Argentina in 2015. If there is a bounce back in 2016, it will be only a modest one. The heavy rains which hit the main production zones of this varietal group, located either side of the river Uruguay in these two countries (provinces of Entre Rios and Corrientes in Argentina, and Salto and Paysandu in Uruguay), could reduce the exportable production, in particular in a context of considerably strengthened sanitary inspections in Europe. In addition, many producers have not been able to sign up to the export programmes for lack of resources, after several particularly difficult seasons in terms of finances. Finally, the lack of competitiveness of these two countries remains considerable on a market as competitive as the EU-28 (varietal range under development, though still heavily centred on ageing varieties), aggravated by the presence of significant Customs duty from which their competitors are exempt.
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