Alternate bearing effect and climate problems, especially in the Valencian Community
The world’s leading citruses exporter is exhibiting poor form at the start of this 2017-18 season. With an expected 6.3 million tonnes, the harvest is a long way off its normal level, of around 6.7 to 7.2 million tonnes since the beginning of the decade. There are multiple factors behind this fall. Firstly, the alternate bearing phenomenon is coming into play. 2016-17 saw a very good harvest level in 2016-17, contrary to what might have been expected from exports clearly below normal given the major quality problems due to highly unfavourable weather. Secondly and more importantly, the climate again had a power negative impact in particular in the Valencian Community, the heartland of Spanish export citrus growing. The deluge of winter 2016-17 left its marks (chlorosis of trees, causing irregular flowering), while on top of that spring temperatures were unfavourable for fruit-setting. In addition, the drought took on catastrophic proportions, in particular on the Levant coast where a large part of citrus production is concentrated (another year of water deficit, a recurrent phenomenon since 2013, draining dam levels to 38 % of their capacity, for the first time since 1995).
The consequences of these multiple problems vary according to the varieties. The specialities of the Valencian Community in the first part of the season were very hard hit, starting with the most iconic clementine and orange varieties of Spanish citrus growing, i.e. Nules and Naveline. These two cultivars, which represent more than 70 % of the region’s clementine harvest for Nules, and more than 45 % of its orange harvest for Naveline, are seeing their production slide to more than 20 % below average. So there will be a major shortfall during the mid-season (November/December), since both key products are hard hit. The grapefruit, which has little weight in Spain’s huge production figures, but a great deal on the European market, will also see its production drop to below average. Conversely, late easy peelers, late oranges and the lemon are set for good harvest levels.
The good performance by these three citrus families illustrates the dynamic of the Spanish cultivation area in recent years. True, the general shrinkage trend in surface areas is continuing. The cultivation area has decreased by 20 000 ha since the beginning of the decade, especially because of the endemic difficulties of traditional “small-scale” citrus growing in the Valencian Community. Nonetheless, while certain clementine varieties such as Nules or Marisol, certain hybrids such as Fortuna or Ortanique and certain oranges such as Naveline have been widely uprooted, surface areas have distinctly expanded for other cultivars. This is the case in particular for the lemon, whose cultivation area now extends over more than 41 000 ha, according to the Ministry of Agriculture (+ 3 600 ha on the low point seen in 2014). Production, currently at around 1.1 million tonnes, could approach 1.4 to 1.5 million tonnes by the end of the next decade. This is also the case for certain late hybrids. Surface areas have now stabilised for Orri and Nadorcott, at 2 200 ha and 4 600 ha respectively (no more licences granted). However, the export potential should continue to rise as the young orchards come into their prime (approximately 200 000 t expected for Nadorcott, as opposed to 156 000 t in 2016-17, and 70 000 t for Orri, as opposed to 26 000 t in 2016-17). The same applies to Tango, which is entering the market for real this season (25 000 t expected), whose surface areas are not precisely known (estimated at 3 000 ha). Finally, it is also the case for late oranges (super-late Navel, widely planted at the end of the last decade, and enhanced Valencia, planting of which has progressed in recent years). One issue remains, a major one at that in certain regions: will water resources allow this potential to be expressed?
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