With approximately 570 000 t expected, the Israeli harvest is registering one of its best levels this decade, more than 10 % above average. Nonetheless, this fine performance will not equate to a bumper export campaign. The big increase in the orange harvest, due not only to the alternate bearing phenomenon but also to the growth trend of surface areas, conceals a stability or shrinkage trend for the families which make up the bulk of Israeli exports. For the grapefruit, the harvest is only similar to 2016-17, i.e. somewhat below average, given the mass uprooting carried out over recent years (more than 1 400 ha of coloured grapefruits currently in production, as opposed to 2 700 ha previously). There is a very considerable fall in production for easy peelers, because of a very powerful alternate bearing effect due to the exceptional 2016-17 harvest. Hence exports of Orri, the current jewel of Israeli citrus growing, should be down by approximately 30 %.
The EU-28 will remain the central outlet for Israeli exporters. Nonetheless, its market share should continue to ebb (barely more than 60 % in 2016-17). The high level of the shekel against the euro risks continuing to weigh down on shipments to the Old Continent (despite a slightly less punishing level this season). Israeli exporters are now primarily targeting dollar-based markets. Hence North America and the Far East (Japan, but also China and South Korea) have seen their respective market shares climb to more than 10 % in recent seasons.
Given the current trends of the Israeli cultivation area, few changes should be expected in the export sector in the coming years. Despite the very good price levels registered in recent seasons, producers remain hesitant to set up new coloured grapefruit plantations. Similarly, surface areas have stabilised for Orri (with certain unproductive orchards actually being uprooted). The only current developments relate to oranges (mainly late Navel), to feed a local market fairly buoyant after the mass uprooting of traditional varieties such as Jaffa Late or Shamouti carried out in recent years.
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