As is the annual custom, 300 representatives from the apple and pear sector came together for the 40th Prognosfruit Conference, which was held in early August in Hamburg, Germany. The harvest forecasts unveiled on this occasion reflect the good apple potential expected this year, with a total of more than 12 million tonnes, for the third consecutive year. Conversely, pear production is a bit down on the average (2.2 million tonnes, i.e. 7 % below the 5-year average) due to a shortfall from most European countries, especially marked for the early or mid-season varieties.
Although the start of the campaign is enjoying a fairly clear context, with production levels slightly lower than the two previous bumper harvests, feelings are mixed with the Russian embargo continuing to weigh down on European apple exports. Producers have stepped up their sea-freight exports, but the competition is hotting up in Asia and North Africa, destinations to which European exporters have turned. Furthermore, certain outlets could see cutbacks, such as the United Kingdom because of repercussions from the Brexit vote, while others, such as the industrial sector, are for the moment still saturated from the last harvest.
For the 3rd consecutive year, European production should exceed 12 million tonnes, although 2016 is set to be down very slightly from 2015 (12.3 million tonnes) and from 2014 (12.5 million tonnes). The harvest level should nonetheless be very high throughout Western Europe, and is set for a total of 6.8 million tonnes. This is the case in Italy (2.28 million tonnes), and Germany (1 million tonnes), whereas France is registering a slight shortfall (1.5 million tonnes, i.e. - 7 % from 2015) due to a fall in production in the South-West. Similarly, Spain (509 000 t), the Netherlands (332 000 t) and the United Kingdom (250 000 t) will have no shortage of produce. Conversely, the harvest is set for a shortfall in Belgium, Austria and Portugal, which have been more affected by the climate conditions.
The 2016 harvest should also go down in history for Eastern Europe, as it is set to at least equal the high levels registered in recent years (5.2 million tonnes). This is due primarily to the record production expected in Poland (more than 4 million tonnes), since most other countries in this zone are set for a lean harvest. Furthermore, production in the other big Northern Hemisphere producer countries should also be massive. For the second consecutive year, more than 43 million tonnes is expected in China, more than 5 million tonnes in the USA (the 2nd biggest harvest recorded in this country), more than 1.7 million tonnes in Russia and 1.2 million tonnes in Ukraine, i.e. very high levels for the latter two countries. Hence they should not exhibit any great demand from them, especially since the Russian embargo is for the moment still in force. Shipments to Russia are now practically zero: 1 500 t last campaign, as opposed to 793 000 t in 2011-12 and even 60 200 t in 2014-15. Therefore the overall extra-Community export results have dropped to 1.3 million tonnes, i.e. - 16 % from the previous campaign. Conversely, intra-Community flows have remained stable.
The varietal range should be fairly balanced without a marked shortfall, with the exception of certain local varieties such as Boskoop (- 23 % on 2015) or Cox Orange (- 17 %). The production should be good for bicolored apples, especially for Gala with production exceeding 1.3 million tonnes for the 3rd consecutive year, for Elstar (nearly 400 000 t) as well as for late varieties (1.1 million tonnes for the combined Jonagold/Jonagored and 322 000 t for Braeburn). Only Fuji (- 9 %) and Jonathan (- 14 %) will be down. The Golden production level should still be fairly good (2.34 million tonnes), although it is decreasing a little more every year. Granny production is holding up, and should barely be less than 400 000 t (+ 2 % on the 3-year average). For their part, the new varieties are still riding high. Cripps Pink could register a new record at 260 000 t (+ 29 % on the 5-year average) and the new varieties (Ariane, Belgica, Cameo, Diwa, Greenstar, Honey Crunch, Jazz, Junami, Kanzi, Mairac, Rubens, Tentation, Wellant, etc.) could exceed 500 000 t overall (+ 44 % on the 5-year average). Overall, the season is on a normal schedule and the sizing average. The quality in August was deemed satisfactory.
European pear production is overall set to be in slightly in shortfall (less than 2.2 million tonnes, i.e. - 9 %), in both the west and east of the continent. This shortfall is above all attributable to the fall in production of early varieties (Guyot, Coscia, Rocha), as a consequence of the cold and wet spring, and to a lesser degree for autumn varieties (Williams, Abate, Comice, Kaiser). The potential of winter varieties is practically normal. Hence the shortfall should be around - 11 % to - 14 % in France, Italy and Spain, whereas Portugal is this year set for a small harvest (135 000 t), similar to the previous one but 18 % below the 5-year average. The harvest should also be lean in Greece (- 28 % on 2015). The Netherlands are set for a very good potential, whereas there should be a 10 % fall from 2015 in Belgium. East European production should also be a bit less than last year (- 10 %).
The harvest was smaller for Guyot-Limonera (58 000 t, i.e. - 22 % on 2015) and Coscia-Ercolini (- 16 %). The potential is at most the same as last year for Rocha (- 19 % on the 5-year average). The shortfall is already less marked for Williams Bon Chrétien (- 11 %), Abate Fetel (- 13 %), Kaiser (- 13 %), Comice (- 13 %) and Passe-Crassane (- 14 %), and should be near-normal for Conference (918 000 t). So the market could be swollen at the end of the season, especially since exports should still be stymied by the Russian embargo. Shipments to this destination did not exceed 1 000 t last year, as opposed to 18 000 t the previous campaign and 250 000 t in 2013-14. Extra-Community exports fell by 28 % last year (278 000 t as opposed to 450 000 t in 2013-14)
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