According to Eurostat, in October 2017, the EU-28 set another consumption record... or rather three: a record October with 570 000 t, a ten-month record with 5.356 million tonnes and finally a twelve-month record (November 2016 to October 2017) with 6.353 million tonnes. So October 2017 was an exceptionally heavy month, which told heavily on import prices. While the ACP origins and European produce were treading water (cyclones in the Caribbean and disease in Cameroon), the dollar origins smashed their supply levels. Ecuador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, Peru and Guatemala, every last one answered the call. From the beginning of 2017 (ten months), the dollar group had leapt up by 11.2 % while the ACP group lost 5.6 % (holding up in Africa, tumbling in the Caribbean). European produce was hit (- 13 %) in Guadeloupe and Martinique. But let’s come back to the dollar group, where we need to report, and doubtless monitor, the recent surges by four countries: Panama (+ 22 %), Guatemala (+ 16 %), Nicaragua (+ 190 %) and finally Honduras (+ 116 %). The data compiled by Taxud (real-time customs clearance data) help us estimate imports for November 2017 (to be confirmed at a later date by the Eurostat data). In the end, we get a more reasonable growth rate of around 1.7 % (comparison to November 2016 and November 2017). The US market suffered the same fate as the European market; October 2017 was also a record month with more than 361 000 t consumed. This was 14 % up on October 2016, helping it to achieve a gain over ten months compared to 2016 with nearly 3.6 million tonnes (+ 5.1 %) and over twelve months with 4.212 million tonnes (+ 4.1 %). Ecuador (- 33 % over ten months) continued to come undone on the US market, favouring the EU. Costa Rica and Guatemala vied for the lead, strengthening their positions.
Source : CIRAD
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